Food insecurity is the lack of consistent access to sufficient nutritious food for an active, healthy life. Historically, it has been regarded as a problem of developing nations, often associated with irregular food availability due to environmental, economic, and political factors. However, during the 2008-2014 Recession and subsequent wave of austerity policies, it emerged as an issue in high-income countries such as Portugal, driven by low incomes and economic pressures rather than by food availability (Gregório et al., 2014). Research shows that when household budgets are stretched, families face impossible choices: pay the rent, heat their homes, or buy nutritious food (O‘Connell et al., 2019, 2021). The consequences of food insecurity are severe, ranging from poor diet quality to deteriorating mental, emotional, and physical well-being, and negative effects on child development.

Since 2019, Portugal has faced a series of crises: the COVID-19 pandemic; sharp food inflation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a severe housing affordability crisis. Currently, Lisbon is among the European cities with the highest share of income spent on rent (with average rent consuming 116% of an average worker‘s net income), and housing costs accounting nationally for more than 39% of average household expenditure, while food accounts for 13%. These pressures have intensified in recent years, and between December 2020 and December 2025, food prices rose by more than 35%.

Within this context, it is critical to understand whether and how rising housing and food costs are driving food insecurity.

A key insight from our research is that where and how people live is clearly associated with whether they can afford to eat properly.

Even after accounting for income, education, and other socioeconomic factors, housing tenure remains a major predictor of moderate-to-severe food insecurity in Portugal.

• Households paying reduced rents (which in Portugal almost always corresponds to social housing) are by far the worst affected, with nearly one quarter (24.3%) experiencing moderate‑to‑severe food insecurity and almost three times the odds of food insecurity compared to owner‑occupiers without a mortgage.
• Tenants renting at market rates are significantly more exposed, with 7.5% affected and a 35% higher likelihood of food insecurity.
• Homeowners experience substantially lower levels of risk. Only 2.8% of owners without a mortgage are food insecure, while homeowners with a mortgage show the lowest incidence (1.8%) – note that outright owners include many low-income older adults on fixed pensions.
• Regardless of tenure status, households reporting that housing costs are a “heavy burden” have twice the odds of being moderately to severely food insecure compared to households without this pressure. Therefore, not only tenure type, but also housing affordability plays a decisive role.

These patterns show that the housing affordability crisis is directly affecting families’ ability to secure adequate food. When rent or mortgage payments absorb a significant share of household income, food is one of the few flexible expenses that can be cut. The quality, variety, and, in extreme cases, even the quantity of food that families can consume are compromised when food prices increase. 

Beyond housing, the analysis further identified specific groups with significantly higher levels of moderate or severe food insecurity. 

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One-person households, single parents, especially those with dependent children, and other household types, usually those involving non-related persons, have much higher rates of moderate-to-severe food insecurity. Additionally, there is an extremely steep income gradient: one in eight households in the lowest income quintile experience moderate-to-severe food insecurity, compared to fewer than one in 250 in the highest quintile. 

The implications for family well‑being are profound. Rising practices of “anticipatory coping” (i.e., reducing food variety and quality to manage tight budgets) create a persistent, low‑grade stress that weighs heavily on households. Parents are likely to feel guilty or anxious about not being able to provide the fresh, nutritious foods associated with the Mediterranean diet, even when they are not experiencing severe hunger. Evidence from international research shows that mild food insecurity is linked to higher stress and anxiety, particularly among women (Pourmottabed et al., 2020; Bateson et al., 2025). As budgets tighten, the daily work of planning meals, stretching ingredients, and managing household needs becomes more time-consuming and mentally demanding. The constant pressure heightens parental stress, creating a chronic burden that affects entire families.

The main conclusion of this study is that within a context of rising food insecurity, policy must link food and housing.

This research shows that food insecurity in Portugal has increased steadily since 2019, driven primarily by a rise in its milder forms. A growing share of households are compromising diet quality and diversity as an early coping strategy in response to rising living costs. These anticipatory adjustments signal mounting economic pressure; they may also precede more severe forms of deprivation if current trends persist. Housing affordability has emerged as a central component of the food insecurity puzzle in Portugal. Finally, single parents, one‑person households, non‑EU citizens, and low‑income households are more vulnerable to being food insecure, reflecting compounded vulnerabilities in relation to the labour market, housing systems, and social protection regimes.

The points below summarise the key takeaways from our findings for policy considerations:

• Mild food insecurity needs to be considered a public health issue. A shift towards less diverse, lower-quality diets threatens adherence to the healthy Mediterranean diet and is likely to have long-term consequences for population well-being.
• Housing policy needs to be linked to food policy. Expanding affordable and social housing, stabilising rental markets, and reducing housing cost burdens are essential interventions for reducing food insecurity.
• Social protection must be more responsive. Within a context of rapidly rising food prices, income and emergency support must be accessible and stigma-free to help households before they are forced to compromise their diets.
• Targeted policies are also needed to reach the most vulnerable groups: low-income renters, single-parent families, young adults, and non-EU migrants.
• Without integrated policies that address the housing-food nexus, food insecurity in Portugal (as in other high-income countries facing similar affordability crises) is likely to deepen, with far-reaching consequences for health, well-being, and social cohesion.

The EU-SILC data is cross-sectional; therefore, while it is possible to identify strong associations, the evolution of households during this period cannot be measured. Additionally, the 2019-2023 period is marked by a “polycrisis” of overlapping shocks (pandemic, inflation, housing crisis), making it difficult to isolate each factor’s exact contribution. 

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